The Ministry of the Economy proposes 3 scenarios for economic development in 2023-2027

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NUR-SULTAN. KAZINFORM The Ministry of National Economy of Kazakhstan has drawn up three scenarios for the country’s economic development in 2023-2027, reports Kazinform.

According to Minister Alibek Kuantyrov, the forecasts were made on the basis of final data on economic growth in 2021, expectations of international financial organizations and prices of export goods. He said so at the government meeting today.

According to the IFO forecast, world oil prices in 2022 will be $104.2 per barrel.

Global economic growth is expected to reach 3% in 2023. Depending on the development of external and internal parameters, the ministry has drawn up three scenarios for the economic development of Kazakhstan for 2023-2027.

According to a base scenario, the average oil price will be 85 dollars per barrel and the USD/KZT exchange rate will be 470 tenges per dollar. Average real GDP growth will be 3.9% in this scenario, including 4% in 2023.

In an optimistic development scenario, oil prices are expected to be $110 per barrel, while the USD/KZT exchange rate will be 440 tenges per dollar. Average annual economic growth is forecast at 4.2%.

A pessimistic scenario calls for an oil price of $60 a barrel and real GDP growth of 3.5%.

In all scenarios, inflation is set at 7.5-9.5% in 2023, 4-5% – in 2024, with a gradual decline to 3-4% in 2025.

The ministry recommends using the base scenario in budget planning. “According to this scenario, real GDP growth will decrease from 4.0% in 2023 to 4.2% in 2027. Nominal GDP will increase from 120.7 trln tenge to 176.6 trln tenge,” Alibek Kuantyrov noted.

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